Many people still choose to utilize gas heating even though the price of natural gas is constantly rising. Whether this will remain an economical heating option in the future is determined by this new analysis.

Many houses still rely on gas heating even though fossil fuels are becoming more expensive and will soon no longer be allowed in Germany. For instance, according to the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH), 410,500 natural gas-powered heat generators will still be available for purchase in 2024. Is the new purchase a wise decision? This has now being looked into by Co2Online, a non-profit consulting firm.

Very costly, one heating system in particular

Co2Online evaluated the prices of several future-relevant heating systems for the analysis; the acquisition and installation costs, along with the energy usage over the following 20 years, were the deciding considerations. As a result, gas heating has the greatest overall expenditures. However, when compared over an extended period of time, other heating technologies are likewise expensive.

The factors that affect costs

The CO₂ tax is one element that is eventually raising the price of gas heating. Over the next years, this will increase significantly, which will make heating more costly. Despite the need that a specific percentage of biogas be combined with natural gas starting in 2029, which benefits the CO₂ tax, biogas is even more costly, according to Co2Online.

Then there are the network fees. Which are also projected to rise in the future: Funding is required for the costly network expansion. And all gas heating system owners receive an equal share of the overall network fees, thus with less owners of a gas heating system, the costs are distributed among a shrinking number of gas heating system owners.

And, a few localities have already declared their intention to shut down their gas systems. Affected households may incur large conversion costs as a result.

Less expensive heating techniques

The entire cost of a gas heating system over a 20-year period comes to 78,800 Euros. So, is there a less expensive way to heat? For instance, district heating?

Although district heating is a possibility, the overall expenses are still somewhat significant. If homeowners choose this solution, they will spend over 52,100 euros over 20 years.

Long-term operation of an air pump is challenging; it would be best to power it with a photovoltaic system on the roof. The total cost of a heat pump is around 37.550 euros; the Kombi variant is 34.395 euros.

The analysis demonstrates that energy costs, rather than investment costs, determine the economic viability of a new heating system.

The methodology

The analysis includes the cost of energy use over a 20-year period and the cost of buying and installing a new heating system in a typical single-family home. This time frame is in line with the typical minimum service life of the majority of heating systems.

The prices for buying and setting up a new heating system are determined by co2online using data from the German Chamber of Architects’ Construction Cost Information Center. The KfW heating subsidy, which consists of a basic funding of 30% and an extra climate speed bonus of 20%, was considered. This computation does not account for potential interest expenses.

The energy costs were calculated using the heating mirror, the Copernicus project Ariadne of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and the Fraunhofer ISE projections on the evolution of wholesale prices.