The Vision Prize is an online survey of scientists about climate risk. It’s an impartial and independent research platform for incentivized polling of experts on important scientific issues that are relevant to policymakers. Some of theirprevious survey results have found that about 90 percent of participating scientists believe that humans are the primary cause of global warming over the past 250 years.
In its latest survey, the Vision Prize asked participants questions about technologies to limit climate change, and about the latest IPCC report. Two of these questions asked about the likelihood that global average sea level will rise less than the IPCC lowest estimate (0.25 meters, or 10 inches), or more than the IPCC highest estimate (0.91 meters, or 3 feet) by 2100. These estimates are about 60 percent higher than in the 2007 IPCC report, which intentionally left out dynamic processes that cause effects like the calving of ice shelves into the ocean, because at the time they were not well understood. As expected, research has shown that the previous IPCC report underestimated the rate of sea level rise.
The Vision Prize results revealed that despite the much higher sea level rise estimates this time around, the survey participants are worried that the IPCC is still underestimating future sea level rise. 41 percent responded that it’s likely or very likely that sea level rise will exceed the IPCC highest estimate, and 71 percent answering that it’s at least as likely as not. Conversely, only 5 percent responded that it’s likely sea level rise will be less than the IPCC lowest estimate, and 83 percent called this scenario unlikely.