Opinion: The geopolitical endgame in a world with rapid climate change

Published On: January 26, 2025

We witness the formation of a new world order albeit a fragile one, threatened by climate change

In his controversial statements, Trump has suggested a willingness to consider military force for territorial acquisitions like Greenland and the Panama Canal, while dismissing the value of critical trade relations with Canada, which has raised eyebrows about his views on U.S. foreign policy and economic interdependence.

Territorial U.S. expansion – driven by climate change?

Trump keeps floating the idea that Canada should join the United States as the 51st state, saying Tuesday he would not use military force to invade the country, which is home to more than 40 million people and is a founding NATO partner.

While Trump’s suggestion of Canada joining the U.S. may be viewed as a provocative political statement or a light-hearted comment, it overlooks the complex historical, cultural, and political ties that separate the two nations. Given Canada’s status as a sovereign nation with its own identity, government, and international relationships, particularly as a NATO ally, such a proposal is largely unrealistic and not grounded in contemporary political or diplomatic discourse.

President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland has reignited discussions around U.S. territorial aspirations, though such ambitions have historically been met with skepticism and outright rejection from Denmark. Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, holds strategic significance and rich natural resources, but the prospect of acquisition raises questions about international relations and self-determination. Despite Trump’s assertions, acquiring territory through purchase or negotiation remains a complex and contentious issue in modern diplomacy.

BBC: Trump first floated the prospect of buying the territory during his first term in 2019, and has said US control of Greenland is an “absolute necessity” for international security.

“I think the people want to be with us,” Trump said in the press room on board the presidential plane.

“I don’t really know what claim Denmark has to it, but it would be a very unfriendly act if they didn’t allow that to happen because it’s for the protection of the free world,” he added.

“I think Greenland we’ll get because it has to do with freedom of the world,” Trump continued.

“It has nothing to do with the United States other than that we’re the one that can provide the freedom. They can’t.”

Trump refused to rule out acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal by military force and has said the U.S doesn’t need anything from Canada, including automobiles, lumber and dairy products.

The new world order map as some may envision it.

Russia’s interests

CNN: On September 29th 2003, President Vladimir Putin was expected to open the World Climate Change Conference by announcing Russian ratification of the 1997 Kyoto global warming treaty. Instead, he gave an opposite signal.

Russia’s ratification is needed to enforce Kyoto’s global requirements for reduced greenhouse gas emissions, with vast economic consequences. Global warming “might even be good,” cracked Putin. “We’d spend less money on fur coats.” But like Sherlock Holmes’s dog that didn’t bark, what the Russian leader left unsaid was more important. He didn’t say: we shall ratify.

What Putin really thought came out after his non-ratification brought outraged complaints and accusations that Russia had lost an opportunity. He pushed back at critics with his suggestions that global warming was not so bad if you come from Siberia. He noted that “Russia is a northern country, so if it warms up two or three degrees, it’s not terrible.”

Related Russia and Climate Change : Bipolar Near the North Pole

See also  Hydrology & Water Systems Grand Challenges at the Interface of Climate

The endgame

Based on the actions of expansion and announcements, from the most powerful state leaders – one could argue that they see the climate crisis as an opportunity.

 

Why embracing climate change may result in collapse

Topographic map of Greenland bedrock, in effect showing the topography without the extant ice sheet.

Topographic map of Greenland bedrock, in effect showing the topography without the extant ice sheet.

Sure, with the resources and due to geographical location (usually near the poles) a state can endure and withstand a more turbulent environment for longer, but there are many pathways, lasting consequences, and unknowns which suggest the collapse of all the nations.

The cumulative impact of extreme weather events, floods, and climate-related disasters poses a significant threat to global stability and economic resilience, disproportionately affecting even the most powerful nations. Rising costs, loss of infrastructure, and human displacement can lead to societal fragmentation, undermine economic growth, and strain government resources, ultimately eroding the foundations of a state’s power and influence.

15,000 Scientists Warn Society Could ‘Collapse’ This Century In Dire Climate Report

A drastic new reality already has begun to change our environments, forest biome burn until only a savanna remains, the flora and fauna changes, invasive species proliferate, the damaged and fragile ecosystems can no longer provide for all.

This includes regions of human agriculture through extreme whiplash changes with one year flooding and the next two drought extremes.

Greenland, might be seen as a location for deportations and resources, but the ice sheet melts with climate inaction. And what lingers is the response from the Earth crust when so much mass is lifted away, volcanoes, earthquakes – geo-morphological disturbances.

As glaciers melt due to global warming, the removal of this weight allows the land to gradually rise, which can lead to geological changes and increased seismic activity in some regions.

Sea level rise from melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, here we probably already have committed the planet to at least 1 meter.

At the current rates of progression since the 1990s, we are heading for 1 m sea level rise (SLR) by the end of the century, but there is a distinct possibility it could go faster, especially if parts of Greenland or Antarctica fall apart rapidly, aka 10 times faster than present is possible, we just do not know.

The increased weight of water exerts additional pressure on the seafloor and coastal fault lines, potentially destabilizing these geological features. This heightened pressure can influence seismic activity, potentially leading to an increased likelihood of earthquakes and underwater landslides in susceptible areas.

Understanding this relationship is crucial for assessing geohazards and preparing for the impacts of rising sea levels on coastal communities. This process highlights the interconnectedness of climate change and geological dynamics, emphasizing the need for comprehensive understanding and monitoring of Earth’s systems.

As the earth’s crust becomes more active and extreme weather events increase, structures built at or near sea level are increasingly vulnerable to flooding and contamination, which poses significant risks to food and drinking water safety. Rising sea levels and unpredictable weather can lead to the intrusion of pollutants and saline water into freshwater sources, disrupting ecosystems and impacting public health.

The interconnectedness of global contamination means that local vulnerabilities can have far-reaching consequences, necessitating urgent adaptation and pollution mitigation strategies to protect our vital resources.

Related

Floods, droughts, then fires: Hydroclimate whiplash is speeding up globally

 

Views: 107

View stats enabled since July 28, 2021

Popular Posts

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

About the Author: Chris Machens

Chris Machens
Chris covers the climate and extreme weather, and when not posting articles to the site he works on our next video production.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

0 Comments
Oldest
Newest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments