Hurricane Milton made landfall near Sarasota, Florida as a Cat 3, creating severe damage with winds, the storm surge, rains, and tornadoes.

Hurricane Milton struck western Florida on October 9 as a Category 3 storm, unleashing destructive winds of 120 mph and historic rainfall in the Tampa Bay area, alongside widespread wind damage and a troubling tornado outbreak. Despite the extensive havoc, Florida fortunately avoided the worst outcomes, as the storm’s eye made landfall just 20 miles south of Tampa Bay, thereby sparing the city from a potentially catastrophic 10-foot storm surge that could have resulted in massive economic losses.

Flood

YALE: As noted by hurricane expert Michael Lowry in his Substack post today, “According to NOAA, the amount of coastal flooding in Fort Myers and Naples should happen on average about once every 30 to 60 years, but it’s happened now three times in a span of two years (Ian in 2022 and Helene and Milton this season) for these coastal areas, a brutal outcome of rising seas and a spate of strong hurricanes targeting Florida’s west coast.”

Milton’s Destruction

As Milton approached Florida on Wednesday, the southern half of the peninsula experienced an unusually intense round of hurricane-related tornadoes, causing far-flung damage and at least four deaths. Such twisters often develop in “mini-supercell” thunderstorms that emerge in clusters or lines, especially ahead of and to the right of a landfalling hurricane’s track (the right front quadrant), where tornado-favored wind shear tends to be maximized.

Wednesday’s tornadoes were unusually visible for a hurricane-related outbreak – perhaps because enough dry air was rotating around Milton’s south and east flanks to keep visibility high. The dry air several miles up also enhanced atmospheric instability once the air was lifted, thus lending support to the tornado outbreak.

The 126 tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service across Florida on Wednesday set a calendar-day state record for any day since 1986, spanning the Doppler-radar era. Since time is of the essence with tornadoes, many warnings are based on radar-based clues, such as intense small-scale rotation, that imply a tornado is imminent. As a result, there are typically fewer tornadoes observed than the sheer number of warnings from an outbreak might suggest.

The NHC forecast

The forecast for Milton’s landfall made four to five days beforehand was less than 20 miles (32 km) off, and never deviated much during the entire course of the storm. The landfall intensity forecast was similarly spot-on. These accurate forecasts gave Floridians plenty of time to prepare for the hurricane and make the preparations needed to protect lives and property.

Without climate change, Hurricane Milton would have hit as a Cat 2, not a Cat 3

YALE: Milton’s 11% increase in winds because of human-caused climate change likely made it nearly twice as destructive. Without climate change, Hurricane Milton would have hit Florida as a Cat 2 storm, not a Cat 3, according to the conclusions of a study by World Weather Attribution, an international scientific group. The group issued the study on October 11, just two days after Milton hit. A separate study on Hurricane Milton released the same day by researchers at the Imperial College of London found that this increase in intensity made Milton nearly twice as destructive.

Although a 10% increase in hurricane winds because of climate change may not seem like a big deal, it is a big deal because hurricane damage increases exponentially with wind speed. For example, according to NOAA, a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph (161 kph) winds will do 10 times the damage of a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph (121 kph) winds. This includes damage not only from winds but also from storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes.

Bottom line: A 10% increase in winds yields about a doubling in hurricane damage

Researchers at the Imperial College of London separately determined that climate change increased Helene’s wind speeds at landfall by about 13 mph or 11%, and Milton’s by almost 11 mph or 10%. Using a previously published damage function and data on exposed value of global assets, the researchers determined that 44% of the economic damages caused by Helene and 45% of those caused by Milton could be attributed to climate change. They added that the analysis “likely underestimates the true cost of the hurricanes because it does not capture long-lasting economic impacts such as lost productivity and worsened health outcomes.”

Related

• Biden to visit Florida after Hurricane Milton, calls on Johnson to ‘step up’ on disaster aid
• Hurricane Milton Brought Devastation Across Central Florida (RECAP)