Climate security depends on the climate, with increase in frequency and intensity of climate related impacts the competition for natural resources can exacerbate violence and result in displacement – a threat to international peace and security.
Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions or create new ones – serving as a threat multiplier. It can be a catalyst for violent conflict and a threat to international security.
A meta-analysis of over 50 quantitative studies that examine the link between climate and conflict found that “for each 1 standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%.”
The IPCC has suggested that the disruption of environmental migration may serve to exacerbate conflicts. Climate change does not always lead to violence, and conflicts are often caused by multiple interconnected factors.
- UNDP Climate Security
- German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007) Climate Change as a Security Risk
- Solomon M. Hsiang , Marshall Burke, & Edward Miguel (2013) Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict Science
- Solomon M. Hsiang , Marshall Burke, & Edward Miguel (2015) Climate and Conflict Annual Reviews
- Schneider, S.H.; et al. (2007) AR4 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability IPCC
- Ryan P. Harrod , Debra L. Martin (2014) Bioarchaeology of Climate Change and Violence Springer Briefs in Anthropology