June 24, 2023

Climate security

Climate State

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Climate security depends on the climate, with increase in frequency and intensity of climate related impacts the competition for natural resources can exacerbate violence and result in displacement – a threat to international peace and security.[1][2]

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions or create new ones – serving as a threat multiplier. It can be a catalyst for violent conflict and a threat to international security.[2]

A meta-analysis of over 50 quantitative studies that examine the link between climate and conflict found that “for each 1 standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%.”[3][4]

The IPCC has suggested that the disruption of environmental migration may serve to exacerbate conflicts.[5] Climate change does not always lead to violence, and conflicts are often caused by multiple interconnected factors.[6]


  1. UNDP Climate Security
  2. German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007) Climate Change as a Security Risk
  3. Solomon M. Hsiang , Marshall Burke, & Edward Miguel (2013) Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict Science
  4. Solomon M. Hsiang , Marshall Burke, & Edward Miguel (2015) Climate and Conflict Annual Reviews
  5. Schneider, S.H.; et al. (2007) AR4 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability IPCC
  6. Ryan P. Harrod , Debra L. Martin (2014) Bioarchaeology of Climate Change and Violence Springer Briefs in Anthropology

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