Jim White: The things we Know are going to happen (2015)

Climate Change, Sustainability, and Arctic and Alpine Research – 10/13/15Dr. […]

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Climate State

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November 27, 2015

Climate Change, Sustainability, and Arctic and Alpine Research – 10/13/15
Dr. James White, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research
CRES Boulder County Chapter

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  1. Asteroid Miner November 27, 2015 at 6:07 pm - Reply

    How would advanced aliens size up our reluctance to use nuclear energy?

  2. Asteroid Miner November 27, 2015 at 6:16 pm - Reply

    The number one problem COP21 has to deal with is COP6. How did this stuff get negotiated?

    Global Warming and the EPA plan to mitigate:

    The Conference of the Parties agrees:
    1. To affirm that it is the host Party’s prerogative to confirm whether an Article 6 project activity assists it in achieving sustainable development.

    2. To recognize that Parties included in Annex I are to refrain from using emission reduction units generated from nuclear facilities to meet their commitments under Article 3.1.

    From another document I saw at this web site,
    3. Poor countries are claiming a right to tax the US.

    All 3 are “poison pills” that make it impossible to reduce CO2 emissions. All 3 must be removed to make real progress in stopping Global Warming possible.

    The following has happened: “I’m fighting GW by building a coal fired power plant. It makes less CO2 than a less efficient coal fired power plant that I might have built.

    The third world countries have hijacked the COPs. Obviously, nothing is going to get done as long as the poison pills remain. Remember that what we are fighting for is the survival of the species Homo Sapiens, not every or any individual or every country. The way to prevent poor countries from making CO2 is to let them stay poor.

  3. Asteroid Miner November 27, 2015 at 6:20 pm - Reply

    We are headed for a human population crash from 7.5 Billion to 70 thousand or zero people some time between 2022 and 2040. We don’t have time for research or fooling around with renewables. Causes of a population crash:

    1. Global Warming [GW] will cause civilization to collapse within 13 years give or take 6 years because GW will cause the rain to move and the rain move will force agriculture to collapse. Famine has been the cause of many dozens of previous population crashes.

    2. Reference “Overshoot” by William Catton, 1980 and “Bottleneck: Humanity’s Impending Impasse” by William Catton, 2009. Catton says that we humans are about to experience a population crash. Population biologist William Catton says that the US is the most overcrowded country. Collapse from overpopulation could happen any time now.
    The Earth has 4.5 Billion too many people. An overshoot in population requires an equal undershoot. We overshot by 4.5 billion, and the consequence is an undershoot by 4.5 billion. The carrying capacity is 3 billion. 3 billion minus 4.5 billion is zero because there can’t be minus 1.5 billion people. This can happen even if there is enough food.

    Catton tells the story of an island with deer but no wolves. The deer population increased to ~3500. There was still plenty of food, but the population crashed to 35. The reason was overcrowding.
    Sharing kills everybody because you can’t survive on half of the required calories. 7 billion people is 4 billion too many no matter how you slice it. “We” didn’t make “Them” have too many children.

    3. Aquifers running dry No irrigation, no wheat. No wheat, no bread. The “Green Revolution” was a bad idea. It caused India to double her population rather than get out of poverty. Now Indian farmers have “discovered” that water is a limiting resource. Water is a limiting resource in the US as well. When, not if, the aquifer under the high plains runs dry, there will be no bread and no pasta in the US.
    We didn’t “cause” third world poverty. They were never “unpoor” in the first place. They were stone age, not poor. We invented science. They didn’t. Their failure to invent science is not our fault.

    4. Resource depletion
    4A oil
    4B minerals

    War will kill a lot of people. Famine will kill 8 billion out of 7.5 billion. 7.5-8=-0.5, but with population, the crash ends at zero.

    Will there be survivors? Nobody knows. Nor does anybody have any idea who or where the survivors might be, if any.

    NATURE has lots of other ways to kill humans. Don’t provoke her.

    • Chris November 28, 2015 at 5:10 am - Reply

      Thats a lot of stuff you put up here. Yes, population faces a bleak outcome, but to say this will happen within 13 years resembles pretty much a very bleak guessing. The thing is we heading toward a planet which is only capable to sustain so much population, because the bread baskets of the planet will be particular hard impacted by the shifting of climatic zones, or more unpredictable weather patterns. Call it climate chaos. On the other hand, humans are also good when it comes to survival, and you could always start to feed based on indoor grown foods.

      The problem is when you have conditions which lead to power failure during extensive heatwaves, or when extensive droughts take place. And then the fact that we are just not used to this kind of adaptation. People are used to go to the shopping mall next door, find everything they need and to grow food species in monocultures, which are more prone to pests. Also when you have these emerging situations, involving armed conflicts, you might have to factor in fallout and radioactive contamination.

      But lets assume it will progress in a linear fashion and more peacefully, this would still mean that sea level rise will eventually flood the world coasts, and all the things we have built and trashed there. Thus, another pathway to contaminate our food resources. But this won’t kill all humans, it will just threaten or even ruin major food sources.

      It takes a couple of weeks or few month for the average wind power installation to become climate neutral, and maybe the biggest gain is that these energy sources are decentralized, which means they can withstand much better extreme conditions, keep more lights or air condition running. And if you have certain conditions you can still power your transportation with electricity, while otherwise you would need the oil from far lands.

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