ClimateCrocks: Dr. Jason Box, Chief Scientist of the Dark Snow Project, and a researcher formerly of the Byrd Polar Center at Ohio State, now with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland – has spent the last week in Svalbard, a group of Islands high in the arctic, controlled by Norway.
I asked him to chat by skype and update us on the intense winter of 2013 and 14, the “cold continents warm arctic” paradox, and the ‘ridiculously resilient ridge” that continues to deliver punishment on both sides of the atlantic.
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From what I gather 2014 will like the first El Nino year in quite a few
years too (as noted in a recent issue of New Scientist magazine)- not sure
how this effects the Arctic but certainly means a potentially awful drought
and heatwave situation for us in Australia and probably global heat records
tumbling.
(I know the ENSO cycle does effect the whole globe.)
If this pattern doesn’t break before summer, I suspect 2014 is going to be
highly momentous. I was going to say “one for the record books” but pretty
much every year of the 2000s has been that. I’m thinking more like things
happening that people thought couldn’t happen for maybe 50 or 100 more
years.
Then, add in the growing methane problem from the melt ponds that grow to lakes on land added to the clathrates undersea deposits, there’s 2-,000-3,000 Gigatons of methane that can be released rather quickly with only 5-Gt in today’s atmosphere, so, doubling that won’t take much if thawing continues at an increasing rate. I’m sure you know that methane can greenhouse the planet on its own, for others, that’s the deal, what we do with CO2 won’t matter if the methane goes too far. The only way to stop the emissions is refreeze it all, that will take an attempt… Read more »
Ok, first of there has been a study last year about a potential 50 Gt release from methane clathrates. However, the more immediate threat is from growing permafrost thaw and related methanogenesis http://climatestate.com/2014/02/22/discovery-of-positive-methane-feedback-from-permafrost-thaw/.
Secondly, all the evidence suggest that means of altering the atmospheric chemistry, will not work. (Climate technofixes ‘will not work’ – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/03/climate-technofixes-will-not-work/) Therefore we have to immediately (as in mandatory) begin to phase out fossil fuel burning.
So we are all screwed.