2013 was hottest year on record in Australia

Australia has just sweltered through its hottest year on record, […]

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Climate State

Date Posted:

January 2, 2014

Australia has just sweltered through its hottest year on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Average temperatures were 1.20 degrees Celsius above the long-term average of 21.8C, breaking the previous record set in 2005 by 0.17C.

Professor Karoly: “In the model experiments, it is not possible to reach such a temperature record due to natural climate variations alone

While many climate extremes cannot be directly attributed to a changing climate, the burden of extremes Australia is experiencing is a product of climate change and requires a coordinated national response.”

The 2013 record high is also remarkable because it occurred not in an El Nino year (where a warm ocean current can push up temperatures), but a normal yearhttp://www.businessinsider.com.au/more-extremes-of-heat-wind-floods-bushfires-on-the-agenda-after-australias-hottest-year-2014-1

Annual climate statement 2013

Data collected and analysed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that 2013 was Australia’s warmest year on record while rainfall was slightly below average nationally.

  • Summer 2012–13 was the warmest on record nationally, spring was also the warmest on record and winter the third warmest
  • Overall, 2013 was Australia’s warmest year on record: annual national mean temperature was +1.20 °C above average
  • All States and the Northern Territory ranked in the four warmest years on record
  • Nationally-averaged rainfall was slightly below average for the year, with 428 mm (1961–1990 average 465 mm)
  • Rainfall was mostly below average for the inland east and centre, and above average for the east coast, northern Tasmania and parts of Western Australia
Annual mean temperature anomalies for Australia (compared with 1961–1990 average).  The black line shows the 10-year moving average.
Annual mean temperature anomalies for Australia (compared with 1961–1990 average).
The black line shows the 10-year moving average.

URL http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2013/

Australia records its warmest spring

The spring of 2013 has been Australia’s warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record of 1.43C (set in 2006) by 0.14C. Daytime maximum temperatures were also the highest on record, coming in 2.07C above average and 0.24C above the previous record (also set in 2006), while overnight minimum temperatures were the fourth-warmest on record.

The warmth was most dramatic in September, which saw a mean temperature anomaly of +2.75C, setting a new monthly record by more than a degree. October was also a very warm month, 1.43C above average.

Heatwave expected to hit one-third of Australia over Christmas

This is the first protracted heatwave of the spring-summer period over such a large area.

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2013
Heat waves exacerbated by climate change

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11 Comments

  1. Santimvah January 2, 2014 at 11:04 pm - Reply

    Australia Govt BOM Annual climate statement 2013 – Issued Friday 3 January 2014

    National mean temperature was +1.2 °C above the 1961–1990 average
    2013 was Australia’s warmest year on record, since national records began in 1910
    Summer 2012–13 (Dec-Feb) was the warmest on record
    Spring 2013 (Sept-Nov) was the warmest on record
    Winter 2013 (Jun-Aug) was the third warmest
    Maximum temperatures were +1.45 °C above average
    Minimum temperatures +0.94 °C above average

    ENSO 2013 was a NEUTRAL year for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
    Neither El Niño or La Niña influenced Australian rainfall
    Temperatures were generally slightly below normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific
    Remained within neutral thresholds for the entire 12 months

    Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) around Australia were unusually warm throughout the year
    Monthly anomalies for January and February the highest on record
    For November the second-highest on record.
    This extends a period of sustained record-high SSTs in the Australian region since 2010.
    SSTs Year to November are +0.51 °C above the long-term average, third-highest since 1910

    Annual mean temperature was +0.17 °C above the previous record set in 2005 (+1.03 °C)
    Warmest year on record for South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory
    In South Australia mean temperatures were 0.41 °C above the previous record set in 2009
    All other States ranked in the top four years: Queensland and New South Wales second,
    Victoria third and Tasmania fourth highest average temperatures since 1910 records began.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2013/

    So when ENSO switches back to a ‘warming trend’, a ‘drought trend’ – what could happen in Australia?

    • Profile photo ofadmin
      Chris Machens January 3, 2014 at 3:04 am - Reply

      A very good point and a fresh article from Business Insider is covering it.

      “While many climate extremes cannot be directly attributed to a changing climate, the burden of extremes Australia is experiencing is a product of climate change and requires a coordinated national response.”

      The 2013 record high is also remarkable because it occurred not in an El Nino year (where a warm ocean current can push up temperatures), but a normal year.

      Professor David Karoly, from the School of Earth Sciences at University of Melbourne, says analysis has been made of the temperature record using simulations with nine different climate models that represent the natural variability of Australian average temperatures.

      He says these indicate that greenhouse climate change vastly increased the odds of setting a new temperature record.

      “In the model experiments, it is not possible to reach such a temperature record due to natural climate variations alone,” Professor Karoly says.

      In simulations with no increases in greenhouse gases, none of the more than 13,000 model years analysed reach the record temperature observed in 2013.

      And in simulations for 2006 to 2020 with natural variability and human influences, including increases in greenhouse gases, such records occur approximately once in every ten years.

      “Hence, this record could not occur due to natural variability alone and is only possible due to the combination of greenhouse climate change and natural variability on Australian average temperature.” http://www.businessinsider.com.au/more-extremes-of-heat-wind-floods-bushfires-on-the-agenda-after-australias-hottest-year-2014-1#social

  2. ClimateState January 2, 2014 at 11:29 pm - Reply
  3. pcuimac January 2, 2014 at 11:44 pm - Reply

    ‘the world is cooling for 18 years now’ the retarded idiot deniers say. lol
    They will have to lean the hard way that the majority of scientists are
    right. My daughters kids will pay the price of our generation folly.

  4. illyounotme January 3, 2014 at 12:04 am - Reply

    With heat like this in Australia it is making me wonder what the melt
    conditions are in Antarctica?

  5. Santimvah January 9, 2014 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    6 January 2014, Australia’s hottest year was no freak event: HUMANS CAUSED IT
    by Professor of Atmospheric Science David Karoly & Research Fellow Sophie Lewis at the University of Melbourne.

    “Using the climate models, the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) shows how much the risk of extreme temperatures increases thanks to human influences.
    In our earlier study of our record hot Australian summer of 2012-13, we found that it was very likely (with 90% confidence) that human influences increased the odds of extreme summers such as 2012-13 by at least five times.
    In August 2013, Australia broke the record for the hottest 12-month period. The odds of this occurring increased again from the hottest summer. We found that human influence increased the odds of setting this new record by at least 100 times.”
    https://theconversation.com/australias-hottest-year-was-no-freak-event-humans-caused-it-21734

    “Probabilities of annual average temperatures for Australia from climate model simulations including natural influences only (green) and both natural and human climate influences (red) for model years 2006-2020. The vertical lines show the temperature anomalies observed in 2013 and in 2005 (the previous hottest year observed). David Karoly & Sophie Lewis”
    https://c479107.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/38480/area14mp/zzrbjdky-1388966924.jpg

    2 September 2013, Hottest 12-month period confirmed – so what role did humans play?

    “It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years. Temperatures averaged across Australia between September 2012 and August 2013 were hotter than any year since good records began in 1910. The previous record was held by the 12-month period from February 2005 to January 2006.
    The new record follows a suite of broken records following last year’s “angry summer”, including the hottest summer since records began.”
    https://theconversation.com/hottest-12-month-period-confirmed-so-what-role-did-humans-play-17737

    Extreme Weather directory artciles – Analysis and Comment (16) Research and News (7)
    https://theconversation.com/topics/extreme-weather

  6. Santimvah January 9, 2014 at 2:41 pm - Reply

    WMO Reports Most extreme weather decade in History – 2001 to 2010 Warmest on Record – Wettest since 1901 – Floods were the most common extreme weather event
    See: http://climatestate.com/2013/07/07/signs-of-change-the-past-week-or-so-july-2013/

    MUST SEE 2013 VIDEO SUMMARY 18:39 minutes
    SOC – Epic Extreme Events Of Earth 2013 Review Mass Media Reports
    Published on Jan 5, 2014 http://youtu.be/0iZGVUa0BFo

    Warning: This video may be too intense and dramatic for some viewers to handle. Viewer discretion is advised!
    *This series does not mean the world is ending! These are documentaries of series of extreme weather events that are leading to bigger earth changes. If you are following the series, then you’re seeing the signs.
    Hawkkey Davis Channel – SOC Signs of Change are Everywhere
    http://www.youtube.com/user/HawkkeyDavisChannel

    BUSHFIRES AUSTRALIA 2013

    January 5 2013 7News : Weekend Bushfires South Australia, Tasmania, NSW http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qJL7f8T6NY

    Jan 5, 2013 7News : Tasmania devastated by bushfires – At least 90 homes have been destroyed during the Tasmanian bushfires, fears of one death, and a further threat to life and property. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxz9x7HYIHo

    Jan 14, 2013 Australian Bushfires in photos http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V83LzvXQDTE

    Australian Spring Bushfires
    Australia Bushfire 2013: NASA Aqua satellite show the scale of the bushfires around Sydney http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEYwsJ0tJ-U

    Sep 10, 2013 An investigation is underway into the cause of yesterday’s bush fires in Sydney’s western suburbs and Blue Mountains. A bushfire emergency was declared in a number of areas across NSW, these included Marsden Park, the Hawkesbury, Londonderry and Winmalee. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNpmmneTjLA

    Oct 13, 2013 Australian heatwave sparks fires in Sydney – Emergency crews battle fires across the Australian state of New South Wales, amid high temperatures and strong winds. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU5RL6rVxZ0

    Oct 17, 2013 Sunrise : Large fires burning in NSW http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22Kil_bkQCM

    Oct 18, 2013 Today Tonight : NSW bushfire crisis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLTH_JsoSts

    Oct 18, 2013 ITN Australia bushfires: Firefighters face 30m high flames in Lake Macquarie http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZv-PN63MwE

    Winmalee bushfire – the day after raw footage http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UY4YqJX6TQ

    Oct 20, 2013 7News : UNPARALLELED Emergency – 30 Day State of Emergency has been declared in NSW with the state experiencing its worst bushfire crisis in 45 years. 200,000 Hectares already destroyed by Fire. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aojpiGChQw & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVn14ZYzboo

    Oct 21, 2013 7News : ‘Never seen anything like it’ in Blackheath Mt Victoria – Captain Jim Crowther has been a volunteer firie in the mountains for exactly 50 years – he has never seen anything like this before.

    Oct 21, 2013 CNN Terrifying fire conditions in Australia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=103GPbmJhJI

    Oct 21, 2013 Threat Of ‘Mega Fire’ : Volunteer RFS firefighter speaks about current danger – As New South Wales faces the threat of a “mega-fire” a volunteer firefighter talks movingly of the fear and camaraderie he’s seen. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDfPmSrw3dg

    Oct 22, 2013 CNN Winds and temperatures picking up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39BZ8Zpz7hk

    3 November 2013 Firefighters raced to contain a raging bush fire in Australia on Sunday as authorities issued an emergency warning for people to leave the area. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukZFw5oOQKA

    Nov 8, 2013 – Firefighters battle bushfires threatening homes in north-west Sydney http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8sjChgBHaQ

  7. Santimvah January 9, 2014 at 2:50 pm - Reply

    More background info on Extreme Weather Events and Unprecedented Effects

    2013 AR5 WGI Science Summary for Policy Makers says:
    “…it is now *very likely* that anthropogenic (human activity / influence) forcing has
    contributed to the observed changes in the frequency and intensity of daily
    temperature extremes on the global scale since the mid-20th century. It is *likely*
    that human influence has *significantly increased* the probability of occurrence of
    heat waves in some locations…”

    “Since the AR4 (2007), there is some *new limited direct evidence* for an
    anthropogenic (man made/human activity) influence on extreme precipitation, including
    a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme
    precipitation would be expected to have increased given the evidence of anthropogenic
    influence on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and *high confidence*
    that the *intensity of extreme precipitation events* will increase with warming, at a
    rate well exceeding that of the mean precipitation (ie expotentially).

    In land regions where observational coverage is sufficient for assessment, there is
    *medium confidence* that anthropogenic (human) forcing (heat effect) has contributed
    to a global-scale *intensification* of heavy precipitation over the second half of the
    20th century.”

    The SPM also highlights the following:
    It is now considered even more certain (> 95%) that human influence has been the
    dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Natural internal
    variability and natural external forcings (eg the sun) have contributed virtually
    nothing to the warming since 1950 – the share of these factors was narrowed down by
    IPCC to ± 0.1 degrees. The measured temperature evolution is shown in the following
    graph. http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/gallery/16/AR5_temp_obs.png

    It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average
    surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in
    greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best
    estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed
    warming over this period.

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the
    observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased (see Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM.3 and SPM.4). {2.2, 2.4, 3.2, 3.7, 4.2–4.7, 5.2, 5.3, 5.5–5.6, 6.2, 13.2}

    Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface
    than any preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere,
    1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium
    confidence). {2.4, 5.3}
    IPCC References: WGI Summary for Policy Makers http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_brochure.pdf

    Michael Mann: Climate-Change Deniers Must Stop Distorting the Evidence (Op-Ed)
    Michael Mann, Penn State University | September 26, 2013
    http://www.livescience.com/39957-climate-change-deniers-must-stop-distorting-the-evidence.html

    Oct 2013 – Extreme Weather Events In Europe: Preparing For Climate Change Adaptation
    EASAC was formed by the national science academies of the European Union (EU) Member
    States to enable them to collaborate with each other and speak with one voice with the
    aim of building science into policy at the EU level.
    Its mission reflects the view of academies that science is central to many aspects of
    modern life and that an appreciation of the scientific dimension is a pre-requisite to
    wise policy-making.
    Its views are vigorously independent of commercial or political bias, and it
    is open and transparent in its processes. EASAC aims to deliver advice that is
    comprehensible, relevant and timely.
    http://thegenerator.com.au/extreme-weather-events-in-europe-preparing-for-climate-
    change-adaptation/

    2013 Au Gov – Climate Adaptation Outlook: A Proposed National Adaptation Assessment
    Framework
    http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/documents/06_2013/climate-
    adaptation-outlook.pdf

    May 2012 – http://www.macfound.org/media/article_pdfs/The_State_of_Adaptation_in_the_United_State
    s.pdf

    2011 US NAVY
    Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the
    Navy.
    https://www.facebook.com/NavyTFCC
    http://www.navy.mil/navydata/documents/CCR.pdf

  8. Myaucat January 10, 2014 at 1:59 am - Reply

    clearly the trillions and trillions of tons of CO2 and multitude of noxious
    chemicals that humans are discharging into the atmosphere every day – and
    have been doing so for decades – could not possibly have any effect on the
    atmosphere whatesoever or impact the climate in any way at all. i mean what
    kind of logic is that? that’s just so absurd! of course we have to continue
    to allow the oil industry to maintain it’s totalitarian monopoly over the
    energy sector and help them maintain their ‘corporate science’ that
    educates us on the real truth about how climate change is just a giant
    scam. how else can they be expected to preserve their modest profits? i’m
    so relieved that the conservatives especially understand this more than
    anyone, thanks to their friendly ties with the industry. although that
    should come as no surpirse, since they know their science so well as to
    recognize that the earth is only 4000 years old.

  9. […] 2013 was hottest year on record in Australia […]

  10. tim Fiengold February 9, 2014 at 8:17 am - Reply

    The Earth has been rebounding out of the little ice age for 300 years –
    there is no proof that the rate of warming is out of normal variability,
    all the proof is that we are warming within the bounds of normal
    variability. 1700- to 1735 warmed at a much faster rate than anything today
    with all of our carbon dioxide. Solar cycles drive earths temperature-
    carbon dioxide is a minor insignificant factor. Go investigate the facts.

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