Study: Oceans could rise 6.2 feet (1.9 meters) by 2100!

Published On: February 2, 2025
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Recent research from Nanyang Technological University indicates that if carbon emissions persist at current rates, global sea levels could rise by up to 6.2 feet (1.9 meters) by 2100, presenting a significant risk of entire cities sinking beneath the waves within the next 75 years.

Such an enormous increase would result in catastrophic consequences for the coastal cities around the globe, forcing millions to settle elsewhere and make vast regions uninhabitable.

Earth: “The high-end projection of 1.9 meters [6.2 feet] underscores the need for decision-makers to plan for critical infrastructure accordingly,” said Dr. Benjamin Grandey, lead author of the study.

“More importantly, these results emphasize the importance of climate mitigation through reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” he warned.

Rising sea level projections

The uncertainty surrounding sea-level rise projections stems from the complex interplay of various climate model inputs and processes. While some models focus on established trends such as glacier melting, others incorporate more unpredictable events like ice shelf collapse, leading to a broad spectrum of potential outcomes.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed this uncertainty in its 2023 Sixth Assessment Report. With high-emission scenarios, their estimate global sea levels would rise between 1.9 and 3.2 feet (0.6 and 1.0 meters).

However, using a new approach dubbed “fusion”, the researchers at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) have made a more precise estimate for sea level rise by combining statistical methods with expert opinions, with the result that their figures exceed the IPCC’s projected range considerably.

Earth: “Our new approach tackles a key issue in sea-level science: different methods of projecting sea-level rise often produce widely varying results,” Dr. Grandey explained.

The new results almost double the previous IPCC report conclusions.

How to check your local risks

The Coastal Risk Screening Tool by Climate Central highlights the alarming impacts of climate change by projecting which regions are at risk of submersion under rising sea levels, especially at a threshold of 6.2 feet (1.9 meters). The visualization reveals extensive areas, particularly along coastlines, that are designated in red, indicating significant vulnerability and potential loss of land due to escalating sea levels, thus underscoring the urgent need for climate action and adaptation strategies.

It’s dire all around the globe

Rising sea levels pose a significant threat to the world’s coastal regions, and the European continent is particularly vulnerable. In addition to the UK, heavily populated areas in France, Italy, and Denmark are at risk of being inundated by rising waters, with the potential loss of entire cities, including Venice which already struggles with frequent flooding. The consequences would be catastrophic, displacing millions of people and causing significant economic and cultural damage.

The vulnerability of southern coastal cities like New Orleans, Galveston, and areas of the Florida Everglades to rising sea levels poses significant risks, particularly as New Orleans’ below-sea-level geography complicates efforts to safeguard against potential inundation from an increase of 6.2 feet. These changes could threaten not only the infrastructure and livelihoods of residents but also the region’s ecological balance.

As climate change accelerates sea level rise, regions like the Pacific island nations—Maldives and Tuvalu—are increasingly at risk of becoming uninhabitable, while coastal megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Mumbai confront severe flooding that threatens the homes and livelihoods of millions, resulting in potential humanitarian crises and mass displacement.

What can be done?

The research serves as a stark reminder of the critical state of our planet’s environment. The data emphasizes that drastic climate action is crucial, as the steady increase in carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate global warming and ice melt. If left unchecked, these rising levels of emissions threaten a catastrophic future, where many major cities could potentially be engulfed in rising sea levels, with severe consequences for communities and ecosystems worldwide.

Earth: “This NTU research represents a significant breakthrough in sea-level science. By estimating the probability of the most extreme outcomes, it underscores the severe impacts of sea-level rise on coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems, emphasising the urgent need to address the climate crisis,” noted Professor Benjamin Horton, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore at NTU.

While reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for mitigating climate change, incorporating adaptation strategies is equally important to address the inevitable impacts that are already being felt. By investing in infrastructure such as flood defenses, implementing sustainable urban planning, and enhancing disaster preparedness, governments can protect vulnerable communities and minimize the risk of large-scale climate-driven displacement. This dual approach not only safeguards lives and livelihoods but also fosters resilience in the face of increasingly severe environmental challenges.

Coastal cities must prioritize immediate and robust action to combat climate change and mitigate impending threats from rising sea levels. This includes investing in sustainable infrastructure, enhancing natural barriers, and transitioning to renewable energy sources to reduce emissions. Collaborative global efforts, including strict regulatory frameworks and community engagement, are crucial to build resilience against the challenges posed by a warming planet, ensuring the survival and livability of these vulnerable urban areas.

Abstract

A probabilistic projection of sea‐level rise uses a probability distribution to represent scientific uncertainty. However, alternative probabilistic projections of sea‐level rise differ markedly, revealing ambiguity, which poses a challenge to scientific assessment and decision‐making. To address the challenge of ambiguity, we propose a new approach to quantify a best estimate of the scientific uncertainty associated with sea‐level rise. Our proposed fusion combines the complementary strengths of the ice sheet models and expert elicitations that were used in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under a low‐emissions scenario, the fusion’s very likely range (5th–95th percentiles) of global mean sea‐level rise is 0.3–1.0 m by 2100. Under a high‐emissions scenario, the very likely range is 0.5–1.9 m.The 95th percentile projection of 1.9 m can inform a high‐end story line, supporting decision‐making for activities with low uncertainty tolerance. By quantifying a best estimate of scientific uncertainty, the fusion caters to diverse users.

Plain Language Summary

A probabilistic projection of sea‐level rise uses a probability distribution to represent uncertainty. Using differing methods, scientists have constructed several alternative probabilistic projections of sea‐level rise. By considering their complementary strengths, we propose to combine the alternative projections into a single fusion. The fusion quantifies our best estimate of the uncertainty associated with future sea‐level rise. Under a low‐emissions scenario, the fusion’s very likely range of global mean sea‐level rise is 0.3–1.0 m by 2100. Under a high‐emissions scenario, the very likely range is 0.5–1.9 m. The fusion is easy to interpret and caters to diverse users.

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About the Author: Chris Machens

Chris Machens
Chris covers the climate since 2011, and when not posting articles to the site he usually works on our next video production.
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