This topic contains 11 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  Dan B. 5 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #5354

    Editor
    Keymaster

    Random things.

  • #5316

    Dan B.
    Participant

    Since the riots are based on internal economic struggles, how is this tied to climate change? Granted increases in food prices have been driven globally by increases in energy prices, but this is only indirectly tied to climate change by governmental policies designed to increase energy prices. Government control of water may indeed lead to border conflicts, but this is again, internal politics.

  • #5324

    Editor
    Keymaster

    Many factors are at play, policies, extreme weather, market prices and of psychological nature.
    For instance in Syria the building of a dam by Turkey, drought and failure to address policies (subsidies) lead to the situation. Attribution is not easy but if you have extreme weather you might expect this as a major impact.

  • #5348

    Dan B.
    Participant

    In other words, political and economical instability are the leading causes? Extreme weather has always occurred, and does lead to temporary shortages (and price hikes). Globally, these events have occurred with decreasing frequency, and developed countries have been better able to weather these events. Developing areas are still at the mercy of the weather, but have seen civil strife magnify these issues.

  • #5351

    Editor
    Keymaster

    Dan B., if you want to continue the discussion with me you’ve to provide references to your arguments. You apparently ignore the above resources which are straight forward and the science which supports it.

  • #5364

    Dan B.
    Participant

    First, energy costs have had the greatest impact on food prices in recent years.
    http://www.fuelfreedom.org/blog/driving-up-food-prices/world-bank-figure-3/

    Second, rising food prices do lead to civil unrest in the poorest countries. This impact is greatest immediately after the onset of rising prices.
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1162.pdf

    Third, droughts have been more severe in the past than those observed today:

    20th Century Droughts

    Finally, some of the worst famines in history were not caused by drought, but government policies. Some were cause by severe drought however, but none in recent centuries.

    10 Terrible Famines In History

  • #5384

    Dan B.
    Participant

    Prokaryote,
    Part of the discussion was the political and economic consequences of drought. My references concerning such have similar validity as yours. Regarding the climatic factors influencing droughts, recent years have been quite mild in comparison.

    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/cook/2009_Cook_IPCC_paleo-drought.pdf
    http://www.utexas.edu/news/2009/04/16/megadroughts/
    https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/Hiremath2012-d/SinhaStottetal11-QSR-globalContextofMegaDroughts.pdf

    Ancient megadroughts dwarf those of the lresent warming period. Indeed, research suggest that they were caused by cooler temperatures. Flooding, on the hand, shows signs of increasing during warmer spells.

    • #5390

      Editor
      Keymaster

      See you cite now researchers (good), however you resort to Willie Soon, who lost his credibility when he became funded by fossil fuel interests and manufactured science, aligned to these interests.

      http://www.desmogblog.com/willie-soon

      The IPCC AR4 document you cite isn’t in conflict with the topic discussed. Though, you ignored my hint to look for studies assessing drought in the particular regions – your cite assesses North America and is outdated.

      The University of Texas cite isn’t in conflict either. Only because there were severe droughts (Megadroughts)in the past doesn’t invalidates current observations.

  • #5392

    Dan B.
    Participant

    Of course severe droughts in the past do not invalidate current observations. These areas are currently experiencing drought. However, we cannot disimiss the data showing that droughts in Africa, North America, and Asia were more severe during colder epochs. Also, not all areas will respond to warming uniformly, and some regions would be expected to be more drought-prone in a warming world. Any time the temperatures rises or falls, there are those who benefit more and those who suffer more. The data points to warming resulting in more rainfall and less drought globally, but not necessarily regionally.

    Africa, which has the greatest civil unrest potential due to food shortages shows a strong drought correlation whenever the surrounding ocean temperatures were cooler:

    http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=8631
    http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/green-sahara-african-humid-periods-paced-by-82884405

    Given the choice between models predicting worse droughts in a warming world, and scientific research showing the opposite, I will side with the scientists over the modelers, until the models prove more proficient.

  • #5394

    Dan B.
    Participant

    Yes., posted them already. Collectively, the peoples of this world grow enough food to feed everyone. The problem is distirbution and waste. Some of the food never gets to the most needy due to corruption, politics, poverty, or just poor infrastructure. Most of the food riots occur due to one or more of these issues. Granted, poor hravest just exacerbate the situation. We may indeed see more unrest caused by food shortages in the future. However, the major causs are not climate-related.

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