March 5, 2014 at 6:12 pm #5354
March 5, 2014 at 6:12 pm #5316
Since the riots are based on internal economic struggles, how is this tied to climate change? Granted increases in food prices have been driven globally by increases in energy prices, but this is only indirectly tied to climate change by governmental policies designed to increase energy prices. Government control of water may indeed lead to border conflicts, but this is again, internal politics.
March 5, 2014 at 7:29 pm #5324
Many factors are at play, policies, extreme weather, market prices and of psychological nature.
For instance in Syria the building of a dam by Turkey, drought and failure to address policies (subsidies) lead to the situation. Attribution is not easy but if you have extreme weather you might expect this as a major impact.
March 6, 2014 at 4:01 pm #5348
In other words, political and economical instability are the leading causes? Extreme weather has always occurred, and does lead to temporary shortages (and price hikes). Globally, these events have occurred with decreasing frequency, and developed countries have been better able to weather these events. Developing areas are still at the mercy of the weather, but have seen civil strife magnify these issues.
March 6, 2014 at 5:51 pm #5351
Dan B., if you want to continue the discussion with me you’ve to provide references to your arguments. You apparently ignore the above resources which are straight forward and the science which supports it.
March 6, 2014 at 8:05 pm #5364
First, energy costs have had the greatest impact on food prices in recent years.
Second, rising food prices do lead to civil unrest in the poorest countries. This impact is greatest immediately after the onset of rising prices.
Third, droughts have been more severe in the past than those observed today:
Finally, some of the worst famines in history were not caused by drought, but government policies. Some were cause by severe drought however, but none in recent centuries.
March 6, 2014 at 8:53 pm #5366
Dan, it is true that human intervention can create famine, however the discussion here is about food riots in light of climate change induced droughts.
Therefore one has to look at the geographical location and the history of drought frequency and intensity.
Then i looked at your sources which do not qualify as references – they are not of scientific nature. Blog posts without direct links and quotes of scientific material lack credibility.
For example this here are sources with references, and which are relevant to the regions discussed.
NOAA study: Human-caused climate change a major factor in more frequent Mediterranean droughts (2011) http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111027_drought.html
Projections by scientists
‘Whole world’ at risk from simultaneous droughts, famines, epidemics: scientists http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/17/planet-climate-change-risk-drought-famine-epidemic
Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: case study – Drought in Syria, ten years of scarce water (2000-2010) http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/23905
March 7, 2014 at 12:40 pm #5384
Part of the discussion was the political and economic consequences of drought. My references concerning such have similar validity as yours. Regarding the climatic factors influencing droughts, recent years have been quite mild in comparison.
Ancient megadroughts dwarf those of the lresent warming period. Indeed, research suggest that they were caused by cooler temperatures. Flooding, on the hand, shows signs of increasing during warmer spells.
March 7, 2014 at 1:07 pm #5390
See you cite now researchers (good), however you resort to Willie Soon, who lost his credibility when he became funded by fossil fuel interests and manufactured science, aligned to these interests.
The IPCC AR4 document you cite isn’t in conflict with the topic discussed. Though, you ignored my hint to look for studies assessing drought in the particular regions – your cite assesses North America and is outdated.
The University of Texas cite isn’t in conflict either. Only because there were severe droughts (Megadroughts)in the past doesn’t invalidates current observations.
March 7, 2014 at 5:09 pm #5392
Of course severe droughts in the past do not invalidate current observations. These areas are currently experiencing drought. However, we cannot disimiss the data showing that droughts in Africa, North America, and Asia were more severe during colder epochs. Also, not all areas will respond to warming uniformly, and some regions would be expected to be more drought-prone in a warming world. Any time the temperatures rises or falls, there are those who benefit more and those who suffer more. The data points to warming resulting in more rainfall and less drought globally, but not necessarily regionally.
Africa, which has the greatest civil unrest potential due to food shortages shows a strong drought correlation whenever the surrounding ocean temperatures were cooler:
Given the choice between models predicting worse droughts in a warming world, and scientific research showing the opposite, I will side with the scientists over the modelers, until the models prove more proficient.
March 7, 2014 at 5:36 pm #5393
[quote=5392]droughts in Africa, North America, and Asia were more severe during colder epochs[/quote]
Do you got a reference?
I think the point is that we are still able to mitigate drought impacts and famine in a globalized environment to a good degree. However, often this doesn’t happen for many reasons.
A good read with many explanations of current situations (linked on the other thread) is still this post from 2012 by Joe Romm.
Must-Read: Tom Friedman On Climate Change And ‘The Other Arab Spring’ http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/08/460221/tom-friedman-on-climate-change-and-the-other-arab-spring/
During the 2010 Russian drought we could get a glimpse what happens if nations run out of enough harvest (impacting exports and imports globally).
Worst Russian Drought in 50 Years Threatens Next Crop http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-03/worst-russian-drought-in-50-years-threatens-more-crops-grain-sowing-plans.html
March 7, 2014 at 6:42 pm #5394
Yes., posted them already. Collectively, the peoples of this world grow enough food to feed everyone. The problem is distirbution and waste. Some of the food never gets to the most needy due to corruption, politics, poverty, or just poor infrastructure. Most of the food riots occur due to one or more of these issues. Granted, poor hravest just exacerbate the situation. We may indeed see more unrest caused by food shortages in the future. However, the major causs are not climate-related.
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