February 21, 2014 at 1:12 am #5053
A warmer world is more prone to violence, see for instance this post http://climatestate.com/2013/12/22/climate-change-clashes-and-riots/
When it comes to larger conflicts there is now an index to assess the likelihood, as Motherboard explains.
The Math That Predicted The Revolutions Sweeping The Globe Right Now
It’s happening in Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand, Bosnia, Syria, and beyond. Revolutions, unrest, and riots are sweeping the globe. The near-simultaneous eruption of violent protest can seem random and chaotic; inevitable symptoms of an unstable world. But there’s at least one common thread between the disparate nations, cultures, and people in conflict, one element that has demonstrably proven to make these uprisings more likely: high global food prices.
The Motherboard article concludes
We may still have higher food prices if the policies are not implemented but if they are, we may have a significant reduction in prices and lower unrest globally.
However, with more climate disruption, even policies might not help – when there is not enough harvest to feed the entire population.
Back in 2012 Joe Romm from ClimateProgress wrote:
Must-Read: Tom Friedman On Climate Change And ‘The Other Arab Spring’
and made this point:
The fact that the 2011 NOAA analysis confirmed the climate models’ predictions of drying is especially worrisome because the climate models project a very dry future for large parts of the planet’s currently habited and arable land in the coming decades — particularly this region
2011 UN warns of food riots in developing world as drought pushes up prices
Food and climate change was first addressed back in 1974 Climate State. Part 1
Riot and clashes news
We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say
March 1, 2014 at 8:28 am #5244
Global riot epidemic due to demise of cheap fossil fuels
From South America to South Asia, a new age of unrest is in full swing as industrial civilisation transitions to post-carbon reality
Instead the post-2008 crash era, including 2013 and early 2014, has seen a persistence and proliferation of civil unrest on a scale that has never been seen before in human history. This month alone has seen riots kick-off in Venezuela, Bosnia, Ukraine, Iceland, and Thailand.
This is not a coincidence. The riots are of course rooted in common, regressive economic forces playing out across every continent of the planet – but those forces themselves are symptomatic of a deeper, protracted process of global system failure as we transition from the old industrial era of dirty fossil fuels, towards something else.
Even before the Arab Spring erupted in Tunisia in December 2010, analysts at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned of the danger of civil unrest due to escalating food prices. If the Food & Agricultural Organisation (FAO) food price index rises above 210, they warned, it could trigger riots across large areas of the world. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/feb/28/global-riots-protests-end-cheap-fossil-fuels-ukraine-venezuela
March 8, 2014 at 7:17 pm #5447
Climate Change Pushing World to Brink of Food Crisis as FAO Price Index Jumps to 208.1 in February Food… Along with water and energy, which are related to its production, it is one of the key commodities necessary to keep the world’s 7.1 billion people alive, healthy and happy. Its price and availability can determine the fate of nations and the stability of the world’s economic system. Rising prices mean risk of increasing poverty, risk of political instability and, in the worst instances, a creeping spread of hunger and malnutrition about the globe. http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/07/climate-change-pushing-world-to-brink-of-food-crisis-as-fao-price-index-jumps-to-208-1-in-february/
February 26, 2014 at 6:50 am #5187
Climate change is becoming one of the most important geopolitical drivers
Extreme climate phenomena are now occurring all over the world, including in developed countries in the West. In the poorest areas of sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, intense rains threaten the habitat and the agricultural yields in many regions, particularly the coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea and that between Kenya and Mozambique.
All these phenomena increase the risk of climate change conflicts. The hunt for natural resources – in particular water – is destined to intensify in the near future. We only need to consider the importance of controlling the groundwater in the Jordan Valley in the Israeli-Palestinian case, or the competition for the Nile waters among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
Awareness of these risks from climate change is still limited, but they will be one of the frontiers of strategic analysis in the future, as demonstrated by the interest of the world’s major economies in the study of the geopolitical consequences of climate change.
With increasing awareness of climate impacts and the progress noted in visualising these, the challenge of building resilience will become easier. Yet much action is still need to prevent dangerous climate change. http://www.theguardian.com/connect4climate-partner-zone/how-to-visualise-a-warming-world
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