Researchers Talk Permafrost Carbon Feedback Models #Methanogenesis

Can we model permafrost dynamics adequately in Earth System models? Researcher present and discuss recent climate carbon cycle modelling efforts, and reply to questions.


Dave Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Charlie Koven, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Release via IARPC Collaborations

Most accurate climate models predict greatest future warming

The climate change simulations that best capture current planetary conditions are also the ones that predict the most dire levels of human-driven warming, according to a statistical study released in the journal Nature Wednesday. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy…

The 936 PPM CO2 NASA Model Prediction

This NASA visualization is based on the latest IPCC report, and uses the business as usual scenario, where carbon dioxide concentrations rise to 936 parts per million—more than double today’s levels of 400 parts per million—by the year 2100. Temperature anomalies are estimated to be close to 4°C in the Arctic.


Atmospheric Oxygen Decline threatens Humanity’s Existence

Study: There has been a clear decline in the volume of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere over the past 20 years. A recently proposed model predicts a non-linear decay, which would result in an increasingly rapid fall-off in atmospheric oxygen concentration, with potentially devastating consequences for human health. We predict that humans may continue to survive…

Climate Change in the Arctic and Model Projections

This video with scope on permafrost melting, highlights some of the new developments of our understandings, of what happens in the Arctic due to global warming. The Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), at the University of Alaska Fairbanks May 11, 2017. Professor of Geophysics Vladimir Romanovsky discusses the impact of Arctic permafrost thaw. Related

Sea Level Rise Projections until 2100, a nonlinear response?

Past sea level rise is not captured by models yet, in particular the response from ice sheets in Antarctica due to global warming. Projections therefore can often be regarded to potentially underestimate future sea level rise. For example, Overpeck et al. (2006), and Hansen (2007) suggest possibilities which could eventually lead to a nonlinear response…

Rapid sea-ice loss may increase the rate of Arctic land warming by 3.5 times – affecting permafrost

Recently a mysterious Siberian crater has been discovered, which subsequently raised questions about the circumstances surrounding the crater formation.  Theories include Pingo formation and connections to the thawing of permafrost (ClimateState reported). Robert Scribbler, summed it up: One theory on the feature is that it might be a pingo — a melting of a permafrost water pocket…

With further Arctic Amplification, How fast will Greenhouse Gas emissions accelerate in the Arctic Circle?

Introduction to Methane Hydrate “Methane Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change” (2011) IDENTIFICATION This post “A Mechanism for Shallow Methane Hydrate Dissociation”, explores possible mechanism which could release vast quantities of shallow Methane Hydrate into the ocean and atmosphere.       CH4 Release The following studies explore the release of CH4 emissions in the Arctic region. OBSERVATION…

Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change

You can’t understand climate change in pieces, says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt. It’s the whole, or it’s nothing. In this illuminating talk, he explains how he studies the big picture of climate change with mesmerizing models that illustrate the endlessly complex interactions of small-scale environmental events. You can’t understand climate change in pieces, says climate…

The Albedo Effect Explained With The DaisyWorld Model (NASA)

NASA: A look at how the historic DaisyWorld model illustrates earth science concepts, such as albedo and feedback loops. This webshort was produced as an educational tie-in with the Science on a Sphere feature LOOP. Related Wikipedia: Albedo Earth-orbiting satellites see Arctic surface darkening faster The retreat of Arctic sea ice is diminishing Earth’s albedo, or reflectivity,…

Global Warming Underestimated by Half

Uploaded on YouTube Aug 21, 2013: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Cowtan & Way (2013) Stefan Rahmstorf at RealClimate: A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in…

IPCC: Climate Change Synthesis Report, Highlights

Published on YouTube Sep 30, 2013: For the 5th time in 23 years, the world’s leading climate scientists have released an update on the state of the climate. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist reviews the highlights plus shares the panel’s predictions for the rest of the century.
Here’s a link for more information:

NASA: IPCC Projections of Temperature and Precipitation in the 21st Century

Published on YouTube Sep 27, 2013: New data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio show how climate models — those used in the new report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — estimate how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century.…