Can scientists overcome huge uncertainties to pin down how close, or far, we might be to a tipping point?

A 2007 Royal Society paper by NASA scientist Drew Shindell: “… the rarity of palaeoclimate evidence for hydrate-induced climate changes argues that this is a fairly unlikely candidate for near-term sudden climate change. Unlike the others, however, anthropogenic climate change may alter the probability of hydrate release when compared with the past, making the overall…

Estimating northern polar CH4 flux

A compilation of related science with some commentary. Microbes in thawing permafrost: the unknown variable in the climate change equation David E Graham, Matthew D Wallenstein, Tatiana A Vishnivetskaya, Mark P Waldrop,Tommy J Phelps, Susan M Pfiffner, Tullis C Onstott, Lyle G Whyte, Elizaveta M Rivkina,David A Gilichinsky, Dwayne A Elias, Rachel Mackelprang, Nathan C…

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0 – 2000 m), 1955 – 2010

S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer,O. K. Baranova,H. E. Garcia,R. A. Locarnini,A. V. Mishonov,J. R. Reagan,D. Seidov,E. S. Yarosh, and M. M. Zweng | published 17 May 2012 Abstract We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content(OHC) and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000…

Arctic methane outgassing on the East Siberian Shelf

SkepticalScience.com by John Mason on January 19 2012: In December 2011, following a fresh flurry of sometimes conflicting media reports about methane outgassing on the East Siberia Arctic Shelf (ESAS), we decided to go and talk to the people doing the work on the ground. We are pleased to report that Dr Natalia Shakhova (NS…

Methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the Potential for Abrupt Climate Change

Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov | Source University of Alaska, Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Centre, USA Russian Academy of Sciences, Far Eastern Branch, Pacific Oceanological Institute, Vladivostok, Russia “Opening the Arctic”, Washington, Nov.30th-Dec.2nd, 2010. Outline What do we know about methane potential of the ESAS? Is there a mechanism responsible for transformation of methane potential to…

Climate Extremes and the Carbon Cycle

A new study (doi:10.1038/nature12350) published in nature, explores the impacts of extreme weather events on the carbon cycle. By Bobby Magill / Wunderground, published: August 15, 2013: Devastating drought in the Southwest, unprecedented wildfire activity, scorching heat waves and other extreme weather are often cited as signs of a changing climate. But what if those extreme…

Global CH4 Atmospheric Methane Average 1811ppb(METOP-2)

Continuing the global CH4 methane average jump, on August 13, 2013 am, 0-12 hr, we hit a new high average of 1811 ppb. A comment at Arctic Sea Ice Forum notes: “Assumed methane emissions for the RCP scenarios; which clearly shows that we are now exceeding the methane emissions assumed for RCP 8.5; which is…

Newly discovered Mesospheric Polar Clouds possible indicator of Global Warming

The Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission is the first satellite dedicated to the study of noctilucent clouds. Noctilucent clouds, sometimes called Polar Mesospheric Clouds, were first reported in 1885. Forming at altitudes above 50 miles, they are so faint that they can only be seen from the ground in the reflected light…

Arctic Death Spiral – Evolution to July 2013

Published on YouTube Aug 12, 2013: This is a visualization of the Arctic Death Spiral showing the evolution of the volume of sea-ice over time from 1979 to July 2013. Pitch of the notes are proportional to the average sea-ice volume for each month. Spectral filters are derived from the average sea-ice volume for each…

A Mechanism for Shallow Methane Hydrate Dissociation

I previously looked at the science and commercial usage of Methane Hydrate, at freshwater influx in the Arctic Circle and asked  Does Freshwater Runoff in the Arctic change Ocean Circulation to Unlock Methane Hydrate in the Deep Ocean? This post covers: Identification of possible mechanism which could eventually release vast quantities of shallow Methane Hydrate…

NASA: Wildfires, Smog – Particulate Matter Will Only Get Worse (August 2013)

August 10, 2013 – NASA Research is showing due to the increase in the earth’s temperature, we can expect to see more wildfires, and fires in areas that normally don’t see fires. NASA scientists talked to The Weather Channel about the latest research. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/fires/main/index.html

Kevin Anderson on the Climate Crisis – Why 2.0C target?

Cabot Institute Annual Lecture 2012 Real clothes for the Emperor: Facing the challenges of climate change Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change, University of Manchester Cabot Institute, University of Bristol http://www.bris.ac.uk/cabot   Real clothes for the emperor Facing the challenges of climate change Download the presentation slide sheets here.