Can scientists overcome huge uncertainties to pin down how close, or far, we might be to a tipping point?

A 2007 Royal Society paper by NASA scientist Drew Shindell: “… the rarity of palaeoclimate evidence for hydrate-induced climate changes argues that this is a fairly unlikely candidate for near-term sudden climate change. Unlike the others, however, anthropogenic climate change may alter the probability of hydrate release when compared with the past, making the overall…

Estimating northern polar CH4 flux

A compilation of related science with some commentary. Microbes in thawing permafrost: the unknown variable in the climate change equation David E Graham, Matthew D Wallenstein, Tatiana A Vishnivetskaya, Mark P Waldrop,Tommy J Phelps, Susan M Pfiffner, Tullis C Onstott, Lyle G Whyte, Elizaveta M Rivkina,David A Gilichinsky, Dwayne A Elias, Rachel Mackelprang, Nathan C…