Holland and Bruyère
These two papers add to the growing body of evidence that we are seeing more intense hurricanes as a result of human-caused global warming. The Grinsted paper also notes that the most harmful aspect of hurricanes – storm surges – have become larger over the past few decades.
The future of hurricanes remains an open question. While Grinsted predicts that the most intense hurricanes will continue to become more and more frequent in a warming world, the results of Holland and Bruyère suggest that we may be near the peak of intense hurricane frequency. The Grinsted results are more in line with most previous hurricane modeling research, but for the sake of people living in areas subject to hurricanes, we hope that Holland and Bruyère are correct about the hurricane saturation level.